Topics:
- Installing and running ReservePro under Vista
- Creating new custom tables in ReservePro
- Modifying the dates on my triangles and exhibits
- Identifying my payment pattern
- Using previous periods' development factors
- Selecting tail factors
- Loss Ratios for Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods
- Prior ultimates in Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods
- Adding several files together
- Using development factors from industry sources
- Modifying ReservePro's graphs
- Turning quarterly data into annual data
- Different column layouts on the same reports
- Printing from multiple files at the same time
I receive a "Failed to update the system registry" message when trying to install ReservePro under Microsoft Vista, and the install does not appear to complete successfully. Does ReservePro work on computers using the Vista operating system?
Yes, but some new security features implemented in Vista require that you take a couple of extra steps to install ReservePro and to configure it to run properly. You can find further details in this PDF document:
I currently perform all of my analysis in ReservePro except for one exhibit in Excel. Is it possible to recreate that exhibit in ReservePro so I don't have to keep copying and pasting?
Yes, by creating a user-defined table. The easiest way to create a user-defined table is to find a similar table within ReservePro, replicate it (Tools | User Defined Tables | Replicate), then make revisions as necessary (Tools | User Defined Tables | Edit). It is also possible to create a new array, exhibit, method or report from scratch by selecting Tools | User Defined Tables | New. ReservePro is capable of performing basic mathematical operations within a table as long as they are consistent from row to row. In other words, ReservePro is not able to perform regressions or calculate trends but is able to add, subtract, multiply and divide within a user-defined table.
I complete an annual analysis but my accident periods are 4/1/xx-3/31/xx. Is there a way to show the true dates in my Accident Year column rather than just the year?
Yes. Select Tools | File Labels. The first tab, Formats, allows you to select from 32 choices of a date format as well as gives you the option to change the title from Accident to whatever term would better describe your data (i.e. Fiscal, Report). You may also decide on this tab whether the development exhibits appear with 12-24 or 24/12 as column headings. The second tab, Dates, is where you would specify the actual exposure dates of your data (i.e. 3/31/xx). The third tab, Historical Factors, is where you could change the labels applied to historical factor selections on development exhibits.
All the Cash Flow Analysis reports are based on the loss payment pattern you anticipate in the future. The most common starting point in determining your payment pattern is the pattern inherent in your selected Paid Loss Development factors. If you have selected development factors on the Paid Loss Development exhibit, your implied payment pattern is already available.
1. In the ReservePro Navigator, open the Paid Loss Development Exhibit. Make sure the Ratio to Ultimate line displays below your Selected Factors row. If not, go to View|Exhibit Options and on the Selections tab, turn on Ratio to Ultimate.
2. If you've selected development factors on this exhibit, the Ratio to Ultimate numbers represent the payment pattern implied by those selections. Simply highlight to select all those amounts and select Edit|Copy from the menu.
3. In the Navigator, go to Cash Flow Reports and open the Payment Pattern table.
4. Press the Source Data button to go to the data entry window.
5. With the display set to Cumulative, select Edit|Paste From the menu.
If your pattern doesn't get to 1.00, you'll have to enter data in one additional cell (in Cumulative mode) containing 1.00; most ReservePro cash flow reports require that the Payment Pattern go to fully-paid. Press the Apply button.
Yes! Whenever you add a new evaluation to a ReservePro file, the system automatically stores your most recent selections in a "history" file. In subsequent analyses you can choose to include these historical selections on your exhibits, along with your calculated averages and other statistics. You can even double click on them on your exhibits, allowing you to uses last time's selections to estimate your current ultimates.
To add prior selections to your exhibits,
Ø Select View|Exhibit Options
Ø On the Exhibit Statistics tab, check the Show Historical Selections box.
Ø Identify how many prior periods to show (up to the previous four evaluations).
Ø Select OK.
Now when you open any exhibit that contains factor selections (assuming this file was used in previous periods and run through the Add New Evaluation process), the prior periods' selections will appear.
My actuarial methods don't calculate unless I select a tail factor. Is there an easy way to select tail factors in ReservePro?
Yes. ReservePro fits an inverse power curve to development factors to help you estimate subsequent development. To do so,
1. open the appropriate development exhibit;
2. select a row of factors to which you would like to fit a curve (often your selected factors row); and
3. right click (or select Tools from the menu) and select Tail Factor Analysis | New.
ReservePro fits a curve to your selected data. You can define how far into the future to extend the calculation, modify or omit factors, and graph the curve. The results are then included on your original exhibit.
I'm using one of the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (B-F) method templates to project losses. Where can I find information to help me select an expected loss ratio?
The expected loss ratio is the ratio of anticipated losses to earned premiums. The B-F method assumes that the expected loss ratio is predictable. However, in some cases, an appropriate loss ratio may be difficult to select. For example, instability in accident year loss ratios may make this difficult. Keep in mind that pricing inconsistency may affect whether premium is an accurate measure of exposure.
ReservePro contains several reports to help you make more effective use of the B-F methods. The loss reports labeled "Preliminary Selected Ultimate Loss Rate" and "Preliminary Selected Ultimate Loss Ratio" are designed to help you make these types of selections. The reports calculate a preliminary selected ultimate based on a weighted average of the paid and incurred loss development methods. The weights are derived from the inverse of the selected development factors, which inherently gives more weight to the more fully developed incurred method.
These reports provide a good place to start. Because they are somewhat mechanical in nature, however, you might also want to consider other pertinent information within ReservePro as well. For example, select Exhibits|Losses|Loss/Premium Ratios to review the exhibits for:
- Cumulative Paid Loss to Cumulative Premiums
- Cumulative Paid Loss to Ultimate Premiums
- Cumulative Incurred Loss to Cumulative Premiums
- Cumulative Incurred Loss to Ultimate Premiums
Review and compare trends across the rows and down the columns. Other sources worth reviewing include the loss ratios implied by pricing/underwriting, historical data (such as Schedule P), and industry data.
I would like to use my selected ultimate loss from the prior evaluation as a starting point in a Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, but the expected ultimates in the pre-defined methods are being calculated. Is there any way around this?
Yes. The best way to approach this is to create a user-defined method by replicating one of the pre-defined Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods.
- Highlight the method you would like to replicate and select Tools | User defined tables | Replicate.
- Highlight the new user defined method.
- Select Tools | User defined tables | Edit.
- Select the expected ultimate loss column and click Edit. Make the appropriate changes to the column heading and formula, mapping to the historical ultimates triangle.
- Return to the first screen in the Table Wizard and delete the first two columns.
I'm using File Math to sum several files together but the resulting file contains blanks in the input arrays. What could be causing this?
Most likely there are blanks in at least one of the source files. When performing File Math (or Table Math), any blank cell included in the calculations will result in a corresponding blank cell in the resulting array. The Blanks to Zeros utility, available from your computer's Start menu under Programs | ReservePro, converts all blank cells to zeros in selected ReservePro files so that these two operations will not result in blank cells. The utility will not affect arrays that do not contain any data; it will only convert blank cells in arrays with data in at least one cell. It must be executed prior to using File Math or Table Math.
Yes. ReservePro can store and use development factors from outside the current project. Adding such data to your exhibits can provide valuable insight to help you select development patterns for estimating your ultimates.
ReservePro stores outside data, or even your own factors, in Development Factor Libraries. Each library can contain any number of Factor Sets, and a factor set can retain factors for many related exhibits. For example, you could create a Development Factor Library called 1998 Workers Comp Development, and it might contain Factor Sets for each state. Each Factor Set could contain Paid and Incurred factors for the respective state.
Development factor data can come from your own analysis of other regions, projects or data sets, or from information vendors such as A.M. Best, ISO, and NCCI.
When setting up your exhibits, you can tell ReservePro to include Factor Set information for comparative purposes. Go to View|Exhibit Options|Factor Sets and add the factors to your exhibits. That data will display along with the other calculated statistics (averages, etc.) to help you select your factors.
See your manual or the Help system for detailed information about creating and using Development Factor Libraries and Factor Sets, and how they an add value to your analyses.
Can I change the items ReservePro includes on my graphs, and how do I select a different color for a specific bar or line?
Yes, data item can be changed. ReservePro determines which data items to include on a new graph based on predefined defaults. However, any item of data on any table can be included in or excluded from a graph. You can either right click on the graph or select the menu item Graph | Data Source. The Data Source window lists all the elements that can be graphed for the open table and explains the process of selecting data items.
To change the display of a specific data item in a graph, double click on that particular element. This opens Chart Designer and takes you directly to the attributes of that specific element or "series." From here, you can expand this item, select Datapoint, and change the color on the Fill tab in the right panel. To apply the change(s) to the graph, click OK or Apply.
Yes, ReservePro allows you to change the current development periods from a lower level of detail to a higher one using the Compress Columns /Compress Rows commands. Development periods may be compressed as follows:
This feature can be accessed by navigating to Tools | File Structure | Compress Rows and Tools | File Structure | Compress Columns.
The compress feature will recalculate values to reflect your desired level of detail. It should be noted that Selected Development Factors and Selected Method Variables will not be retained, though Selected Ultimates will be.
You must first compress rows, then, if desired, compress columns so that your triangles will always be at least as wide as they are tall. You should save the compressed file under an a new name, using the SAVE AS command, to retain the original file.
The Summary of Losses and Reserves report from one of my files is comprised of different columns than the same report from another file. What's causing this variation?
Three of ReservePro's summary reports have special behavior---they automatically adjust based on the data in the file for ultimates (e.g., loss, ALAE, or claims) and IBNR amounts (e.g., loss reserves or ALAE reserves). One of our customers jokingly nicknamed these as the "Presto Change-O" reports since they seem to "magically" change by themselves. Besides the report that you mentioned (report ID# 1), the other reports that adjust are the Summary of ALAE and Reserves (report ID# 10) and the Summary of Claim Counts (report ID# 20).
For example, if your file includes data for paid losses, case loss reserves, IBNR loss reserves, and selected ultimate loss amounts, the Summary of Losses and Reserves report presents seven columns of information:
- Paid loss
- Case loss reserves
- Incurred loss (1+2)
- IBNR loss reserves
- Incurred plus IBNR loss (3+4)
- Indicated change in loss reserves
- Ultimate loss (5+6)
However, if you don't have any ultimate loss amounts, only the first five columns appear. The report is even more different if your file doesn't include data in the IBNR loss reserves input array. After selecting ultimate loss amounts, the report shows:
- Paid loss
- Case loss reserves
- Incurred loss (1+2)
- Indicated IBNR loss reserves
- Ultimate loss (3+4)
The next time any of these summary reports doesn't appear the way that you expected it to, take a moment to review the types of data in your file.
Yes. ReservePro allows you to print a group of tables from multiple files with a single print selection. Using this feature, you may print tables from the active file, several open files, and even files that aren't currently open. To print from multiple files, first open the Print Selection box by going to FILE | PRINT. After selecting the tables or print list that you want to print, go to the second tab for File Selection. Select files from the "Files Currently Open" list and click the Select button, or double-click the file name. To add unopened files to the "Files Selected To Be Printed" list, click the Browse button and locate the files. You may order the list if necessary using the Move Up and Move Down buttons or remove items by using the Deselect button. Once you have selected all the files to print, click OK.